Italian elections: three scenarios April 14, 2008Posted by dorigo in news, politics.
The last votes have been cast minutes ago, and the first exit poll has just arrived. It appears that the fork between PDL (Berlusconi’s coalition) and PD (Veltroni’s party) is thinner than expected: at the lower chamber 42% to 40%, at the Senate 42.5% vs 39.5%.
Under such circumstances, one can foresee four different scenarios.
1) Exit polls are wrong, Berlusconi has a solid majority in both chambers, and Italy is condemned to 5 gloomy years of government by the right.
2) Despite the smaller-than-expected difference, Berlusconi has a majority of seats in both chambers. The numbers in the Senate (which is elected with a baroque system which never grants a solid majority) make his government very difficult to hold. Berlusconi gets blackmailed by Lega Nord from the start, and his government lasts at most two years. After which, the center-left led by Veltroni becomes a more credible alternative and wins.
3) No clear majority in the Senate for PDL forces a coalition of forces to change the electoral law and administer the country for a few months, and new elections happen in six-eight months time, with a unpredictable result.
4) The undecided response of the urns leads to a dismemberment in the big coalitions, and a coalition of forces, led by Pierferdinando Casini’s UDC, attempts to ride the tiger, with pitiful results.
Not a pretty picture in any case. More to come soon.
At 9PM, about three fourths of votes have been scrutinized, and the result is not equivocal anymore. Indeed, it is a clear win for the right.
At the Camera dei Deputati the partial counts give PDL 46.2% vs PD 38.1%, while at the Senato della Repubblica the difference is even larger, PDL 47.1% vs PD 38.2%.
It remains to be seen how many seats will PDL win in the Senate. Due to a very strange electoral system, at the Senate the prize for majority is assigned on a regional basis – there are 20 regions in Italy. Because of that, the margin will be narrow, but probably still confortable, for Berlusconi.
We will have to wait tomorrow for a clear analysis, but it looks like Berlusconi is condemned to govern our country for five more years. And we are condemned to be led by him.
It is now clear that Berlusconi has a full mandate to govern Italy. Even in the critical Senate, he collects 171 seats, which guarantee a solid majority. He said today that his first actions as a prime minister will be to abolish ICI, a very annoying tax – the one on the possession of the house one lives in; and to take care of the critical situation of Alitalia. We will judge him by facts this time.