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Exceptional acqua alta foreseen in Venice again December 10, 2008

Posted by dorigo in astronomy, news, science.
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Nine days ago Venice withstood the assault of an exceptional surge of sea water, the fourth highest in recent history. Water reached the level of +1.56 meters above average sea level at 11.15AM, flooding most of Venice’s streets with two feet of water. I reported about the event in real time here.

Now, conditions are again favourable for another flooding. Below you can see the forecast of the water level for the next few days.

The red line is the astronomical tide (which does not consider weather conditions such as atmospheric pressure, rain, winds, and coherent oscillation of the water of the Adriatic sea basin), while the blue line is the actual forecast. As you can see, there are two distinct floodings predicted to surge above 1.30 m above sea level. 1.30 m is not too rare, but 1.40 m is (fortunately) something that only happens every four or five years. Or at least, that is what used to happen in the past.

I again point to a couple of web cams from where you will be able to follow the events in real time, if you are that nosy:

Update: if you look at the first webcam above right now (early morning of 12/10), you can see S.Marco square flooded by a minor peak in the tide.

Update -12/10, 7PM: the forecast for 12/12 now says +1.55m above sea level, which would just be 1cm below the fourth highest tide ever experienced in recent history (the one of December 1st 2008). Check it below:


1. Thomas - December 13, 2008

Hi Dorigo,

Thanks for the post and the great blog.
Given the acqua alta, I guess I should postpone my trip to Venice -I had originally planned to spend 4 days there just before christmas! Or is Venice still enjoyable in these circumstances?


dorigo - December 13, 2008

Hi Thomas,

Venice is Venice – the acqua alta is part of it. Some tourists even try to catch it, because it changes the city in a very characteristic way. It may be a nuisance if it is constantly raining, but I think that in a few days the weather will change – it has been lousy for ten days now. Anyway, acqua alta is a very transient phenomenon, and in a week it is anybody’s guess whether you’ll find any. Actually, the moon being not full anymore, I think conditions will not be favourable to it.


2. Thomas - December 13, 2008

This is first-hand information, thank you. Well I should give it a thought. What an interesting city!

3. Thomas - December 13, 2008

I think it’s a shame that at the “Centro maree” page, we don’t get to see more details about the model they use for predictions.


dorigo - December 13, 2008

Well, I think it is not a real deterministic model, but something that gets adjusted manually to some extent. I will try to figure this out.


4. RNDr. Pavel Smutny - December 14, 2008

There was conjunction of new Moon, Jupiter, Venus,..Sun was close too,… during acqua alta in Venice on 1th december. I live in central Europe-Slovakia and there is usually problem to see such conjunction. Why? There is typically rainy weather, when there is new moon and when there is conjunction with Venus and Jupiter, so it is even worse. But it has scientific reason. There are spring tides and those are even stronger,higher in such time, because gravitational force from Venus and from Jupiter is added to gravitational tidal force of Moon and of Sun. Spring tides, sucked underearth water-stronger evaporation, flooded rivers, cummulation of clouds,..There are also more stronger earthquakes, vulcanoes explosion, stronger hurricanes in such time. For example not far from us is Venetia and that area is again quite often extremly flooded during last time, but also there are more closures of Thames barrier -against spring tidal surges,…similar it is on Java-in Jackarta. Earth axis is oriented direction Orion,…in circa these some thousends years (due to precession motion) and so those tidal effects are strongest in november and especially in december, but also in jun,…It is probable that during last december week there would be stronger earthquakes, floods, tsunami, how it was on 26th, december 2004.
Venezia bee aware during last week of this december -2008.
20. RNDr. Pavel Smutny – December 14, 2008

These days, of full Moon,..there was, is of acqua alta because Moon is circa in place where planet X is arriving to perihelia,..from places above constellation Orion,…

I red article about identification of cosmic ray sources also in universetoday.com,…Here is my scientific solution, proposal what is responsible for those,…

I am supporter of Planet X idea. My calculations show, that Planet X-Nibiru is quite close, X is approaching perihelia-2012. So X must be now circa 1,6 billion km from us, what is little more than Saturn is. If X is somewhat like small neutron star or micro black hole or core of destroyed brown star,….so X can radiate cosmic rays,..accelerate particles from fumes, particles sucked from matter which is going arriving X trought. My calculations, but also many ancient writings, astronomical maps, …show, that X should come from direction Orion.(Senmut astro map,Dendera zodiac, Narmer palette, astro funneral banner from tomb of markisa Tai,… )
When we look on motions of planets on sky, especially of Saturn, Uranus, what are circa in the same distance how X should be, so their relative motions on sky due to their orbital motion and due to orbital motion of Earth (+-150millions km) is circa one/two constellation within one year on Earth. Why are there two main areas where Gama rays come from? Earth is twice traveling on its orbit in direction what is approx. parallel with direction of arrival of X and twice perpendicular on that direction, so we have two places, when those gama, X rays appearantly are,…when Earth is moving circa parallel with motion of X so X is appearantly moving slovely on sky-toward observer on sky. So there are those hot spots. When Earth is moving perpendicular to motion of X so, X looks moving quickly on sky. When those measurements were done within more years/7, during Outumn exuinoxes was cosmic ray source visible to be near Castor and Polux/constellation Gemini,..during spring equinoxes at Aldebaran-Hyades,paralaxa of X.. ,…hamops1.szm.sk,…and other over there mentioned webs

Those two areas, where are cosmic rays coming from is close to plane of ecliptic! I don\’t think that deflection by Milky way is responsible for two point projection of one object. I think, that that one object is moving in our solar system and we see it\’s appearant motion on sky, similar how it is with appearant motion of planets (Uranus and Saturn are the most suitable example in this case, because similar distance from us). There are too many direct or indirect proof for existence of planet X. This discovery is one of them!?

Eta Carinae is not behind, or deep in Milky Way but in close M42,…cosmic,…rays from Eta Carinae,..or from close very active objects, black holes,… can\’t be deflected by Milky way, because it\’s tentacles,…are far more away!!!

Places of sky with cosmic ray sources very resemble with what is depicted on senmut map or on picture from
that carpet window but turn 180degrees, because that one view is actually like to view from southern hemisphere, where ecliptic is below Orion,…It was probably but made when Earth was overturnded when south was where there is north and sun was rising on west,…Atlantean or pre-atlantean time, how it is written in egyptian chronicles,….
Pavel Smutny
Skype: pavelsmutny40

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