This 1000$ says there ain’t new physics at the TeV scale September 4, 2006Posted by dorigo in games, news, physics, science.
Ok, I think I have been in the HEP community long enough to experience the boredom of a unending string of Standard Model successes and the systematic killing of 3-sigma inconsistencies.
What do we have to show for these 30 years+ of investigations, smart tests, cunning double ratios, global fits, and the like ? Let me try and summarize - despite I am sure I am going to do a very incomplete job:
- Neutrinos mix and have mass. Ok, that is something. But it does not change by much the physics of electroweak interactions.
- Rb is off, but by less than three sigma.
- the gluon distribution function is larger than it used to be at high x.
- low-energy QCD has made big steps forward, but it also did not change the picture much.
- Radiative corrections imply the existence of the Higgs boson, or something else yielding the proper effect on measurable electroweak parameters. Ok, but the Higgs is part of the SM.
What else ? In Run I, CDF did have a few inconsistencies to keep hope alive, but they died one by one under the blows of merciless re-analysis or more data. HERA had these leptoquark signals, but they died away. Aleph had fancy signals at some point, but it also bubbled down…. One could make this list much longer, but things would not change much.
Indeed, I think the overal picture gets more bleak by the day. Today, I learned that there is such a tremendous amount of self-consistency in the SM results that enter the determination of the unitarity triangle (see a previous post below), that non-SM processes modifying observables determined at 1+ loop level are really going to be tough to design, since they either must not violate CP at a detectable level,or they get automatically ruled out before they are even conceived.
So, while I am not rich, I think I have 1,000 US dollars that I can invest in a bet. Here is my challenge:
I am willing to bet a thousand dollars that no new elementary particles (exotic ones, beyond those included in the Standard Model AND beyond the SM Higgs) will be discovered in the next 4.5 years, that is before December 31st, 2010. That is enough time to allow CMS and Atlas to really dig deep with their data into the unknown.
The first physicist who is publically known, who earned less than 100,000 US$ in 2006 (if you are too wealthy I cannot take you, sorry – the bet amount should be slightly uncomfortable to part with, otherwise there is no sense in betting!), and who takes my bet here, will win my 1,000 dollars if any experiment publishes a unquestionable (>5 sigma effects) discovery of a new massive elementary particle before the above date. On the other hand, if no such thing occurs, he will pay me the same amount of money.
Being publically known means that I have a means of twisting your arm if you refuse to pay the bet… And I keep the option of refusing a bet offer without having to explain the reason.
So, you think you fit the bill, and you are sure that LHC will find new physics ? Drop me a line, you are going to earn your five minutes’ worth of typing!
(I have to admit: I would be really happy to have to pay this bet!)